US Housing Market Tracker
Live data on home sales, prices, supply, and affordability — sourced from FRED, Census Bureau, and the National Association of Realtors. Updated as new data is released.
Data from FRED · Census · NAR
Key Indicators
FRED · Freddie Mac · NAR
30Y Mortgage Rate Freddie Mac
6.95%
Near 20-yr high Tight
Median Home Price Census
$416,900
Q1 2026 · new sale median Elevated
Existing Home Sales NAR / FRED
4.02M
SAAR · Apr 2026 Near 30-yr low
Affordability Index NAR / FRED
94.2
Below 100 = unaffordable Unaffordable
Housing Starts Census
1.36M
SAAR · Apr 2026 Below trend
Building Permits Census
1.44M
SAAR — leading indicator Modest
Months of Supply Census
7.4
New homes · 6 = balanced Slight surplus
New Home Sales Census
693K
SAAR · Apr 2026 Holding up
Home Price Trend
Case-Shiller · S&P / FRED
Case-Shiller US Home Price Index — YoY % Change
National composite, seasonally adjusted (S&P / FRED)
—
—
Affordability
NAR · FRED · Census
Housing Affordability Index
94.2
A score below 100 means a median-income family cannot afford a median-priced home.
50 — Crisis100 — Threshold200 — Easy
What it takes to buy at current rates
Median home price$416,900
20% down payment$83,380
Loan amount$333,520
Monthly P&I at 6.95%$2,213
Income needed (28% DTI)$94,843/yr
US median household income$80,610/yr
Monthly P&I at 3.0% (2021)$1,406
Supply & Demand
Census · NAR · FRED
Existing Home Sales (SAAR) NAR
4.02M
Pre-pandemic avg: ~5.4M · Peak 2021: 6.5M · Current: near 30-yr low as rate lock-in keeps sellers sidelined
New Home Sales (SAAR) Census
693K
Builders offering rate buydowns to attract buyers — new construction outperforming existing market
Housing Starts (SAAR) Census
1.36M
Long-run need: ~1.5M/yr to keep up with household formation. Current pace is below replacement
Building Permits (SAAR) Census
1.44M
Permits lead starts by 1–3 months — slight uptick suggests modest pipeline building
Market Signal
USBaseline analysis
What the housing data is telling us right now
Rate lock-in effect is freezing existing supply
Over 80% of existing mortgage holders are locked into rates below 4%. Selling means trading a 3% mortgage for 6.95% — most won't. This keeps existing-home inventory historically low and prices sticky even as demand softens.
Affordability at worst levels since the 1980s
The combination of a 6.95% rate and a $416,900 median price requires roughly $95,000/year in income to qualify — well above the $80,610 US median household income. First-time buyers are the most squeezed they've been in four decades.
New construction is the pressure valve
New home sales are holding up because builders are offering rate buydowns (subsidizing 5–6% rates for 2 years). This keeps new construction moving while the existing market freezes. Watch housing starts and permits as the leading indicator for supply relief.
Prices are not crashing — they're plateauing
Case-Shiller YoY appreciation has decelerated sharply from its 2022 peak of +20%, but is still positive at ~3–4%. Without a forced seller (no wave of defaults like 2008), prices are more likely to grind sideways than collapse. Watch months of supply: above 6 months signals more downward price pressure ahead.
What unlocks the market: rates below 6%
Most housing economists put the unlock threshold at 5.5–6.0% — the rate at which enough existing homeowners would consider selling to normalize inventory. With the Fed signaling at most 1–2 cuts in 2026, that threshold likely won't be crossed this year. The buyer's window may open in 2027.
Calculate your buying power at today's rates
Free mortgage affordability calculator — uses live FRED rate data
Data sourced from FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), U.S. Census Bureau, Freddie Mac, and National Association of Realtors. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.
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